Real Threats Obi Poses To Tinubu
The 2023 general elections, most notably, the presidential election, will be more competitive and much tougher than the previous ones Nigeria has had since 1999 when the country freed from the military interregnum.
Three notable candidates are jostling for the coveted office of the president of the republic and each of them stands a chance, no matter how big or otherwise, to win the election. Mr. Peter Obi, the dark horse in the race, poses real threats to Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress.
Since Obi picked up the ticket of the Labour Party following his defection from the People’s Democratic Party, he has become a serious threat to the All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu, a former Lagos State governor.
One of the real threats Obi poses to Tinubu is that the ex Anambra State governor would spilt the votes in the southern region into unequal halves. Mr. Tinubu would want to have larger percentage of votes in the southern region to counter Atiku Abubakar who relies so much on the northern support.
The APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) has made so many efforts to assure electorate that Muslim-Muslim ticket wouldn’t have negative effects on the country. Both Tinubu and his running mate Kashim Shettima are Muslims. But majority of voters in southern region are Christians (south-south and southeast are predominantly christians).
Both Obi and Tinubu are from southern region. The conservative Christians in the region, and of course the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria (PFN) and its members will tilt towards Peter Obi. It would have been safer for Tinubu (in the southern region) if he had picked a northern Christian.
From another perspective, Peter Obi is widely popular among youths most of whom are students, unemployed Nigerians and victims of the Endsars protests. They don’t need party’s agents of inducement to identify the Labour Party on the ballot paper.
Diehards and critics of Labour Party have claimed that the party doesn’t have “structure” across all the close to 200,000 polling units in the country. They argue that it would be difficult to mobilise support for the ex Anambra State governor, who is seen as the hope of Igbo people to ascension to the presidency.
However, the students, jobless graduates and of course those who are tired of the establishment can locate the Labour Party and its logo once they get the ballot paper.
It should be stated that Peter Obi isn’t popular in the far northern Nigeria. The interethnic crisis of the past coupled with the secession agitation of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) will haunt Obi’s campaign in north.
Atiku Abubakar of the PDP will perform well in north. He is stronger therethan other two top candidates. If he wins the larger part of north, he will get some chunks of votes in south. Meanwhile, Peter Obi poses threat to Tinubu in the southern Nigeria.
Even though Peter Obi is a “write-off” in some quarters including in some media, he can play a significant role by upsetting Tinubu in the southern region and hitherto stopping the former Lagos governor from actualizing his “lifelong” ambition.
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