A divided south against united north: few days to the reality
It remains just few days to see the real fight between a divided south against a united north. It will be the very first time that the northern region would use its numerical strength to prove that it actually holds the yam and knife.
There have been campaigns and rallies across the country including in the northern major cities (Maiduguri, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Bauchi). A good student of political analysis will know that crowds in rallies don’t reflect on the results of the elections.
If it were all about the crowds, some candidates would have started partying and celebrating. The north is waiting quietly. The region, most especially its northwestern side, holds the mantle with its over 20 million registered voters.
The north is united. It has always given the bulk of its votes to a particular candidate compared to the radical and divided southern region. In fact, the race among the three main candidates will be between a divided south against a united north.
Mr. Peter Obi has already divided or spilt the votes from south. Even if the two regions decide to go different ways, south can never match north. Yet Peter Obi has thrown his hat into the ring. He will take a chunk of the southern votes. That is the reality Bola Tinubu and his enthusiasts should admit.
Professor Ango Abdullahi, the outspoken northern leader, has hinted that the north would make use of what it has (number). By his calculation, north still has four more years to spend in power going by 1999 unstated arithmetic.
Interestingly, north has just one main contender for the seat: Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Despite the stiff opposition from the southern PDP’s governors, Atiku remains unscathed.
There are millions of radical and educated voters in southern Nigeria. They will vote based on their choices and upon a critical analysis of the voters. Whereas the northern voters up there would rather go en masse where their leaders (including Ango Abdullahi) point at.
A check at the previous presidential elections results reveal the shocking reality. The north goes together giving their millions of votes to just one candidate or party. In the south, the leading margin is often as low as 10,000 votes, even lower. A divided south against a united north.
Does Bola Tinubu have what it takes to turn the northern voters to him? Of course, Olusegun Obasanjo did it in 1999. The questions are: who and who contested against him? They were from where?
The ex Lagos state governor definitely enjoys the support of the northern APC governors including Umar Ganduje, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Umara Zulum, among others. How long can they woo the northern voters for him? Would they prefer their voices to the pan northern ones including Ango Abdullahi?
It won’t be too long. The anxiety will be over in a matter of days. The divided south will fight itself while the north will go its usual way. The divided south will continue to do its elections in living room, others will go to the poll to show their radicalism.
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